saratoga plays

[JBEX]

advance (not live) plays

at least a half hour but most many hours before post

turf must be turf

dirt must be at least good for play

246 (WP each) $6-12/race
graded and tracked w/avg odds and roi
may let a few days accumulate on occassion

think of anything else will boldface additional post
but really just a simple format

 

[JBEX]

avg about 2-3/day

 

[Jack1999]

Good Luck JBEX

 

[JBEX]

Good Luck JBEX

thanks jack

 

[JBEX]

R2 #3 prime della (12-1) 4WP


firster by #1 and above avg first out sire into mischief.. ships up from mth with some nice works under her.. trainer can pop with a debuter at a price


R3 #1 gussy mac (30-1)4WP


as a 2yo won in his 2nd start after missing by 4.5 lengths in his debut off coming back in 17 days.. today 2nd off a long layoff after losing by 4.5 lengths and back in 17 days.. last start his first try in a route and ran evenly behind a tepid (being kind) pace.. interesting this horse was so effective at 5f as a young 2yo last year when he's bred to run all day.. trainer excellent numbers 2nd start with him and 2nd off a layoff




R4 #2 come storming (15-1) 3WP


ran well twice at this level here last year and 1 of the races he was up close to a very fast pace.. the other he had a very wide trip with the same jock riding him today and missed by < 1 length.. think he probably got some nice foundation staying within a couple of lengths of the pace call (1 mile) at 1 1/4 at belmont last out.. trainer good on the turf (roi factored in) over a huge sample




R5 field is loaded even by saratoga standards and in all honesty this could be the best msw field of the meet..talking first timers that were expensive auction purchases and shug has a home bred big pedigree firster
.. brad cox is the ml favorite with a 2nd timer who ran big first out at churchill.. can't just pick 1 here but these two are very solid and hopefully fly a little under the radar in this bunch




#2 repealing (8-1) 4W
#5 outfoxed (10-1) 4W


R6 #2 alba's star (4-1) 4WP

R8 #2 second of july (15-1) 3WP

R10 #5 noble journey (10-1) 4WP




.

 

[yesyes]

GL jb , this is a tough meet

 

[JBEX]

GL jb , this is a tough meet

thanks yes

 

[JBEX]

R1 #5 charlie'sarchangel (3-1)

left this one out but since it's the opener take a shot..4 and 5 came out of the same $16k claimer at cd ,knocked heads all the way around with the 4 winning by a half length..interestingly enough both went off 5-2 with the 5 positioned just inside the 4 (posts 3,4 last race)..
also both were claimed last race for $16k..this time obviously it's flipped around post wise (advantage outside)..5 is considerably younger and has exactly half the career races of the 4..also 5 has been claimed 5x in his last 10 starts and his trainer is ridiculous dropping off the claim..irad will be riding..realize he's not exactly a reach (which I've done a lot of today lol) but like all the plusses vs the 4

 

[JBEX]

R2 #3 prime della (12-1) 4WP


firster by #1 and above avg first out sire into mischief.. ships up from mth with some nice works under her.. trainer can pop with a debuter at a price


R3 #1 gussy mac (30-1)4WP


as a 2yo won in his 2nd start after missing by 4.5 lengths in his debut off coming back in 17 days.. today 2nd off a long layoff after losing by 4.5 lengths and back in 17 days.. last start his first try in a route and ran evenly behind a tepid (being kind) pace.. interesting this horse was so effective at 5f as a young 2yo last year when he's bred to run all day.. trainer excellent numbers 2nd start with him and 2nd off a layoff




R4 #2 come storming (15-1) 3WP


ran well twice at this level here last year and 1 of the races he was up close to a very fast pace.. the other he had a very wide trip with the same jock riding him today and missed by < 1 length.. think he probably got some nice foundation staying within a couple of lengths of the pace call (1 mile) at 1 1/4 at belmont last out.. trainer good on the turf (roi factored in) over a huge sample




R5 field is loaded even by saratoga standards and in all honesty this could be the best msw field of the meet..talking first timers that were expensive auction purchases and shug has a home bred big pedigree firster
.. brad cox is the ml favorite with a 2nd timer who ran big first out at churchill.. can't just pick 1 here but these two are very solid and hopefully fly a little under the radar in this bunch




#2 repealing (8-1) 4W
#5 outfoxed (10-1) 4W


R6 #2 alba's star (4-1) 4WP

R8 #2 second of july (15-1) 3WP

R10 #5 noble journey (10-1) 4WP




.

R1 #5 charlie'sarchangel (3-1)

left this one out but since it's the opener take a shot..4 and 5 came out of the same $16k claimer at cd ,knocked heads all the way around with the 4 winning by a half length..interestingly enough both went off 5-2 with the 5 positioned just inside the 4 (posts 3,4 last race)..
also both were claimed last race for $16k..this time obviously it's flipped around post wise (advantage outside)..5 is considerably younger and has exactly half the career races of the 4..also 5 has been claimed 5x in his last 10 starts and his trainer is ridiculous dropping off the claim..irad will be riding..realize he's not exactly a reach (which I've done a lot of today lol) but like all the plusses vs the 4

R2 out @ 13-1
R3 out @ 17-1
R4 scratched
R5 out @ 12-1
R5 ..3rd @ 15-1
R6 out @ 7-2
R8 out @ 21-1
R10 out @ 10-1

R1 WINNER $5.90/4.10 (15)

didn't attach amount so I'll make it minimum 3WP

when I play 2 horses in a race use avg odds of the two and it only counts as 1 race ..the count is races not horses



(8) 15/ 58 [0.25] {avg odds 8.9**

 

[JBEX]

(races) return/invest [roi] {avg odds**



don't get why ** but just comes out that way


not important

 

[JBEX]

R2 #6 clear humor (5-2) 8W
R3 #3 timeless journey (4-1) 3WP
R4 #6 now his can't leave (8-1) 3WP
R5 #4 gingrotts (12-1) 3WP
R6 #8 dufresne (15-1) 3WP
R7 #6 mused (6-1) 4WP
R8 #2 kandy ginger (6-1) 3WP
R10 #8 kreesa la wrote (7-2) 4WP

 

[Michelangelo]

Good luck, JBEX.

I saw your discussion in another thread.

Saratoga is the best meet to play. Those "tourists" are largely novices. They contribute to the odds pool. In a parimutuel system you are effectively betting against the other bettors. THe more novice money in the pool the better for us, the true handicappers.

Good luck with the meet.

PS Saratoga is also the mecca for guys (and women) who handicap year round. That would include me and my friends. Tourists? Not exactly. But I do love everything about Saratoga. Great horses, great weather (unless the thunderstorms roll in, great food, and of course the women parading around is unmatched at any track in the country. If I'm not handicapping too well I just look up from my form and I'm smiling.

 

[JBEX]

Good luck, JBEX.

I saw your discussion in another thread.

Saratoga is the best meet to play. Those "tourists" are largely novices. They contribute to the odds pool. In a parimutuel system you are effectively betting against the other bettors. THe more novice money in the pool the better for us, the true handicappers.

Good luck with the meet.

PS Saratoga is also the mecca for guys (and women) who handicap year round. That would include me and my friends. Tourists? Not exactly. But I do love everything about Saratoga. Great horses, great weather (unless the thunderstorms roll in, great food, and of course the women parading around is unmatched at any track in the country. If I'm not handicapping too well I just look up from my form and I'm smiling.

thanks michel and agree 100% with what you said ..while of course there's a lot of sharp money from the regulars who play year round there's also a lot of fat in the pool from the people who don't..a great situation for the regular player


been a while but it is an amazing place..if you're having a good day terrific but if it's not so great,being there takes a lot the sting out of it..can't ask for anything more than that imo

 

[JBEX]

R2 #6 clear humor (5-2) 8W
R3 #3 timeless journey (4-1) 3WP
R4 #6 now his can't leave (8-1) 3WP
R5 #4 gingrotts (12-1) 3WP
R6 #8 dufresne (15-1) 3WP
R7 #6 mused (6-1) 4WP
R8 #2 kandy ginger (6-1) 3WP
R10 #8 kreesa la wrote (7-2) 4WP

R2 ..2nd @ 2-1
R3 out @ 5-1
R4 out @ 11-1
R5 out @ 21-1
R6 out @ 50-1
R7 4th @ 4-1
R8 out @ 9-2
R10 .. 2nd @ 7-1 $7.00



(16) 29/112 [0.25] avg odds 11.0







.

 

[JBEX]

off track fine


saratoga


R5 #7 montaulk point (3-1) 8W
R9 #6 maryland brando (10-1) 3WP
R11 #1 crump (20-1) 3WP

godolphin homebred by into mischief out of an a sw ap indy mare..pretty darn good pedigree and way above avg for off tracks..bumped start and did absolutely nothing in his debut at cd last year as a 2yo..waited all this time to try him for start 2 here..I kind of view this as a positive that they feel good enough to give it a shot vs saratoga maidens..a horse with a pedigree like this healthy can be anything and the debut assures big odds..intrigued at a price

 

[Jack1999]

Good deal on the tracking aspect JBEX. will be interesting to see how Michel, BHP and you fare in this 40 day meet. tough meet no doubt.

 

[JBEX]

Good deal on the tracking aspect JBEX. will be interesting to see how Michel, BHP and you fare in this 40 day meet. tough meet no doubt.

went nuts first couple of days but really did like what I saw..I don't force it and perfectly fine with 1-3 plays if I don't like the card

 

[JBEX]

monmouth (doesn't count on record)

R4 #10 comedic timing (20-1)


what they paid for this horse at auction is a lot more significant as into mischief fee has tripled over that time..off slow on the turf last out and could see a wake up on the dirt this time..kind of similar to crump at saratoga who is also by the same sire..no better time to break your maiden than on haskell day .outside posts in sprints at mth do fantastic..trainer excellent turf to dirt

sloppy fine

 

[JBEX]

haskell

#3 mandaloun (2-1)

I think it's possible there were no other spots coming up soon to run #1 following sea (3-1) and todd didn't want her to sit idle..think the forego at the end of august is probably the goal

this one should love the off going
..happens to be another into mischief
out of an empire maker dam..race record speaks for itself

 

[Lt1]

Good luck today.
Tim